Managerial Risk Analysis And Decision Making
There are no prerequisites for this course.
There are no corequisites for this course.
||This course concentrates on practical decision problems for the
manager in an organization. Topics include decision-making theory,
linear programming and extensions, markov chains, queuing,
simulation, and decision support systems. Use of computer
- Fogler and LeBlanc. Strstegies for Creative Problem Solving, 2nd ed., Prentice Hall, 2008. ISBN: 9780130082794
|Program Learning Outcomes:
Bachelor of Applied Science Learning Outcomes (Organizational
1. Apply the rules and principles of law and ethics.
2. Apply organizational strategies.
3. Communicate professionally.
4. Manage information to support organizational goals.
5. Demonstrate effective management of a business organization.
|Course Learning Outcomes:
Upon completion of this course, the successful student will be able
1.1 Define risk analysis and decision making
1.2 Describe the difference between reactive and proactive problem
1.3 Recognize the advantages and disadvantages of conscious and
unconscious problem solving.
2.1 Clearly define and review the purpose of a decision or the
2.2 Define types of decision problems. Analyze how to clarify the
objective of a decision.
3.1 Distinguish between the various methods of cause analysis.
3.2 Apply various methods of cause analysis to find the cause of the
3.3 Apply different methods of analysis to develop hypotheses which
explains the likely cause of a problem.
3.4 Determine optimum methods of verifying the most likely cause
4.1 Find and develop alternatives and evaluate how well they will
answer the decision.
4.2 Identify and assess potential problems that may affect the
success of the decision.
4.3 Identify how to make trade-offs when all objectives cannot be
met at once.
5.1 Determine the uncertainties that effect decisions.
5.2 Identify different types of risks.
5.3 Determine the tolerance for risk.
6.1 Identify various methods used in risk analysis.
6.2 Describe and perform a Qualitative analysis.
6.3 Define and describe the following Quantitative methods
6.3.1 Monte Carlo Method
6.3.2 Linaer Programming and Extensions
6.3.3 Markov's Chain/Chart
6.3.4 Petri's Chart
6.4 Discuss the benefits of computer risk analysis packages.
7.1 Identify links to coordinate present and future decisions.
7.2 Determine methods to avoid psychological traps in decision making
and risk analysis.
8.1 Develop an action plan
8.2 Select critical areas within the steps of the plan to be
8.3 Identify the need for contingent and exploitive plans.
|Methods of Evaluation:
||Evaluation of student progress towards achieving the stated learning
outcomes and performance objectives is the responsibility of the
instructor, within the policies of the college and the department.
Detailed explanations are included in the expanded syllabus developed
by the instructor for each section being taught.
|| It is the intention of the instructor to accomplish the objectives specified in the course syllabus. However, circumstances may arise which prohibit the fulfilling of this endeavor. Therefore, this syllabus is subject to change. When possible, students will be notified of any change in advance of its occurrence.
|Student Email Accounts
||Pensacola State College provides an institutional email account to all credit students. Pirate Mail is the official method of communication, and students must use Pirate Mail when communicating with the College. In cases where companion software is used for a particular class, emails may be exchanged between instructor and student using the companion software.
|| For students with a disability that falls under the Americans with Disability Act or Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act, it is the responsibility of the student to notify Student Resource Center for ADA Services to discuss any special needs or equipment necessary to accomplish the requirements for this course. Upon completion of registration with the Student Resource Center for ADA Services office, specific arrangements can be discussed with the instructor.